Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 114, Issue 47, Pages E10142-E10150Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1708109114
Keywords
Abies spp.; climate change; dendroecology; emission scenarios; forward growth model
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Funding
- Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional funds [IJCI-2015-25845]
- Organismo Autonomo de Parques Nacionales, Spanish Ministry of Environment [387/2011, CGL2011-26654]
- FunDiver [CGL2015-69186-C2-1-R]
- CoMo-ReAdapt (Spanish Ministry of Economy) [CGL2013A8843-C2-1-R]
- Cambio Climatico y Adaptacion de los Bosques del Pirineo (CANOPEE) (Inter-reg V-A POCTEFA-Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional funds)
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Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.
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