New climate change rainfall estimates for sustainable drainage

Sewer flooding, urban surface water flooding and wet weather pollution are recognised as significant problems in the UK and elsewhere in the world, and changes in extreme rainfall arising as a consequence of climate change are likely to exacerbate these problems. This paper reports on new approaches to estimate potential future rainfall intensity changes over the UK at temporal and spatial scales that impact on urban drainage systems. The research (part of UK Water Industry Research's programme of climate change related projects) has produced estimates of rainfall intensity change over different parts of the UK using a climate analogue approach and a very high-resolution (1 center dot 5 km) climate model developed by the UK Met Office. The new estimates produced are, in general, higher than existing UK climate change allowances for rainfall intensity. Sewer flooding volumes, flooding frequency and frequency of pollution events are also investigated for one location; indicating that these incidents and flood volumes are also likely to increase in the future.