Journal
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
Volume 51, Issue 1-2, Pages 187-205Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3913-5
Keywords
Wind power density; Wind energy; RegCM4 ensemble
Categories
Funding
- Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq)
- Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES)
- Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG)
- Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP
- SANSAO Project)
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Since wind is an important source of renewable energy, it has attracted attention worldwide. Several studies have been developed in order to know favorable areas where wind farms can be implemented. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to project changes in wind intensity and in wind power density (PD), at 100 m high, over South America and adjacent oceans, by downscaling and ensemble techniques. Regional climate model version 4 (RegCM4) was nested in the output of three global climate models, considering the RCP8.5 scenario. RegCM4 ensemble in the present climate (1979-2005) was validated through comparisons with ERA-Interim reanalysis. The ensemble represents well the spatial pattern of the winds, but there are some differences in relation to the wind intensity registered by ERA-Interim, mainly in center-east Brazil and Patagonia. The comparison between the future climate (2020-2050 and 2070-2098) and the present one shows that there is an increase in wind intensity and PD on the north of SA, center-east Brazil (except in summer) and latitudes higher than 50A degrees S. Such increase is more intense in the period 2070-2098.
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