A clinical scoring system to prioritise investigation for tuberculosis among adults attending HIV clinics in South Africa

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation for regular tuberculosis (TB) screening of HIV-positive individuals with Xpert MTB/RIF as the first diagnostic test has major resource implications. Objective To develop a diagnostic prediction model for TB, for symptomatic adults attending for routine HIV care, to prioritise TB investigation. Design Cohort study exploring a TB testing algorithm. Setting HIV clinics, South Africa. Participants Representative sample of adult HIV clinic attendees; data from participants reporting >= 1 symptom on the WHO screening tool were split 50: 50 to derive, then internally validate, a prediction model. Outcome TB, defined as confirmed if Xpert MTB/RIF, line probe assay or M. tuberculosis culture were positive; and clinical if TB treatment started without microbiological confirmation, within six months of enrolment. Results Overall, 79/2602 (3.0%) participants on ART fulfilled TB case definitions, compared to 65/906 (7.2%) pre-ART. Among 1133/3508 (32.3%) participants screening positive on the WHO tool, 1048 met inclusion criteria for this analysis: 52/515 (10.1%) in the derivation and 58/533 (10.9%) in the validation dataset had TB. Our final model comprised ART status (on ART > 3 months vs. pre-ART or ART < 3 months); body mass index (continuous); CD4 (continuous); number of WHO symptoms (1 vs. > 1 symptom). We converted this to a clinical score, using clinically-relevant CD4 and BMI categories. A cut-off score of >= 3 identified those with TB with sensitivity and specificity of 91.8% and 34.3% respectively. If investigation was prioritised for individuals with score of >= 3, 68% (717/1048) symptomatic individuals would be tested, among whom the prevalence of TB would be 14.1% (101/717); 32% (331/1048) of tests would be avoided, but 3% (9/331) with TB would be missed amongst those not tested. Conclusion Our clinical score may help prioritise TB investigation among symptomatic individuals.