Impact of kiwifruit bacterial canker on productivity of cv. Hayward kiwifruit using observational data and multivariable analysis

A virulent strain of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae biovar 3 (Psa), which causes bacterial canker in kiwifruit, was first recorded in New Zealand in November 2010. This strain has severely affected Actinidia chinensis var. chinensis Hort16A' kiwifruit productivity but its effect on green Actinidia chinensis var. deliciosa Hayward' kiwifruit productivity has been variable. An observational study design was used to develop explanatory models to quantify the impacts of Psa infection on productivity (tray equivalents per hectare) of Hayward kiwifruit harvested in 2012, using data captured by industry from 2599 orchards. A total of 934 orchards were Psa positive at the end of the study period. Multivariable linear regression was used to model 2012 productivity in the presence of Psa, while controlling for regional differences, elevation, 2011 productivity, harvest dates and application of agrichemicals. The model showed productivity was initially higher in the presence of Psa, and was not reduced until after 1year of infection. The relationship between protective spray use and productivity was also quantified. It is likely that improved disease management has offset the impact of the disease and future research should consider a reassessment of the effects of disease after longer term exposure to Psa in New Zealand. The use of an observational cohort study to assess disease impacts using multivariable analysis could have wider application in the field of plant epidemiology.