Journal
ECONOMIC SYSTEMS RESEARCH
Volume 30, Issue 3, Pages 289-312Publisher
ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2017.1369010
Keywords
Economic impact; computable general equilibrium model; supply-chain damage; elasticity of substitution
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Funding
- MEXT-Japan [JSPS] [16H04427/16K12390]
- MEXT-Japan [Program for Risk Information on Climate Change]
- Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [16H04428, 16K12390, 16H04427] Funding Source: KAKEN
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Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely used to assess the economic impact of natural disasters, but the models have not been fully validated by applying them to real disasters. This study focuses on validating a model for use in a short-run case in which the functional recovery of infrastructure and businesses occurred on a time scale of a few months. A special attempt is made to determine the parameter values of elasticity of substitutions, which play an important role in the effect on supply chains. In this study, a spatial CGE model, in which Japan is divided into nine regions, is constructed and applied to the case of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Through this application, the best estimates of the elasticity parameters generated relatively consistent estimates of production change compared with the observed change, both in severely affected regions and in other regions.
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