Journal
DESIGN SCIENCE
Volume 4, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1017/dsj.2018.10
Keywords
urban electric bus systems; battery and charging technologies; bus system simulation model; economic analysis; total cost of ownership; technology selection
Categories
Funding
- German federal government
- Federal Ministry of Transportation and Digital Infrastructure [16SBB004E]
- Federal Ministry of Education and Research [03SF0524A]
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Many public transport authorities have a great interest in introducing zero-emission electric buses. However, the transformation process from diesel to electric bus systems opens up a vast design space which seems prohibitive for a systematic decision making process. We present a holistic design methodology to identify the most suitable system solution' under given strategic and operational requirements. The relevant vehicle technologies and charging systems are analysed and structured using a morphological matrix. A modular simulation model is introduced which takes technical and operational aspects into account. The model can be used to determine a feasible electric bus system. The technology selection is based on a detailed economic analysis which is conducted by means of a total cost of ownership (TCO) model. To cope with uncertainties in forecasting, a stochastic modelling of critical input parameters is applied and three different future scenarios are evaluated. The applicability of the model was verified in a pilot project in Berlin and the methodology was applied to a realistic operational scenario. Our results indicate that electric bus systems are technically feasible and can become economically competitive from the year 2025 under the conditions examined.
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