Journal
PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS
Volume 473, Issue -, Pages 337-343Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.12.088
Keywords
Driving force; Nonstationary time series; Solar period; Atlantic Multi-decadal oscillation; Climate change
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41305004, 41675003, 41575058]
- Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather [2016LASW-B07]
- Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)
Ask authors/readers for more resources
A new method based on cross-prediction errors is proposed for the rebuilding of the driving forces exerting influence on nonstationary systems. This method can retrieve driving force from nonlinear nonstationary time series including stationary regions. The numerical tests show that the method is very accurate. Generally, the correlation coefficients between the original and reconstructed driving force are larger than 0.96 for three commonly used maps for single-species discrete chaotic ecosystems. By using the above method, we reconstructed the driving force for an observed time series of the northern hemisphere monthly mean surface air temperature anomalies. Wavelet transformation method is applied to analyze the calculated driving forces. The results illustrated that the driving forces are characterized by the Hale's solar cycle and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, which are the two main separate degrees of freedom on the climate. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available