Journal
ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT
Volume 96, Issue -, Pages 277-286Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2015.02.086
Keywords
Solar resource estimation; Global horizontal irradiation; Solar energy; Soft computing
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Funding
- ATUR at the University of La Rioja [03061402]
- University of La Rioja
- Agencia de Desarrollo Economico de La Rioja [ADER-2012-I-IDD-00126 (CONOBUILD)]
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Solar global irradiation is barely recorded in isolated rural areas around the world. Traditionally, solar resource estimation has been performed using parametric-empirical models based on the relationship of solar irradiation with other atmospheric and commonly measured variables, such as temperatures, rainfall, and sunshine duration, achieving a relatively high level of certainty. Considerable improvement in soft-computing techniques, which have been applied extensively in many research fields, has lead to improvements in solar global irradiation modeling, although most of these techniques lack spatial generalization. This new methodology proposes support vector machines for regression with optimized variable selection via genetic algorithms to generate non-locally dependent and accurate models. A case of study in Spain has demonstrated the value of this methodology. It achieved a striking reduction in the mean absolute error (MAE) - 41.4% and 19.9% - as compared to classic parametric models; Bristow & Campbell and Antonanzas-Torres et al., respectively. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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