A model for the complexity of household energy consumption

A significant number of studies have researched into the household energy consumption and CO2 emission (HECCE). However, little attention has been paid to model the complex interrelationships that exist among the various variables involved, especially for the effect of qualitative variables such as occupants' behaviour. In this regard, a methodology of systems-based approach has been adopted in this research to model the complexity of the socio-technical system of household energy consumption and CO2 emission. This paper will explore the intrinsic interrelationship between the dwellings, occupants and environment systems. The study identifies 'cause and effect' relationships among these systems as well as quantitatively simulates the behaviour of HECCE. A system dynamics model is proposed to utilise the hard and soft data incorporated in this system with due cognisance to the inter-dependencies of variables that are involved in addition to mental judgement of the experts and industry practitioners. The paper also discusses the validation of the proposed model. The proposed model provides policy makers with a decision making tool upon which different scenarios regarding HECCE can be tested before implementation. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.