Journal
JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
Volume 6, Issue 3, Pages -Publisher
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/jmse6030076
Keywords
coastal hazards; sea-level rise; coastal storms; climate change; exposure; socio-economic vulnerability; data visualization
Categories
Funding
- California Natural Resources Agency for California's 4th Climate Assessment, Climate Change Impacts for Southern California
- California Department of Fish & Wildlife, Imperiled Southern California Coastal Plant Species: Assessment of Threats from Climate Change, Including Rising Sea Levels, Storms and Coastal Erosion
- California State Coastal Conservancy, Southern California Climate Change Vulnerability Study
- City of Imperial Beach, Imperial Beach Climate Change Vulnerability Study
- USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program
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This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computing the combined hazards of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges, astronomic tides, fluvial discharges, and changes in shoreline positions. The method is demonstrated through an application to Southern California, United States, where the shoreline is a mix of bluffs, beaches, highly managed coastal communities, and infrastructure of high economic value. Results show that inclusion of 100-year projected coastal storms will increase flooding by 9-350% (an additional average 53.0 +/- 16.0 km(2)) in addition to a 25-500 cm sea-level rise. The greater flooding extents translate to a 55-110% increase in residential impact and a 40-90% increase in building replacement costs. To communicate hazards and ranges in socio-economic exposures to these hazards, a set of tools were collaboratively designed and tested with stakeholders and policy makers; these tools consist of two web-based mapping and analytic applications as well as virtual reality visualizations. To reach a larger audience and enhance usability of the data, outreach and engagement included workshop-style trainings for targeted end-users and innovative applications of the virtual reality visualizations.
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