Productivity costs of work loss associated with osteoarthritis in Canada from 2010 to 2031

Objective: To estimate and project the productivity costs of work loss (PCWL) associated with osteoarthritis (OA) in Canada using the Population Health Model (POHEM). Design: We integrated an employment module based on 2006 Canadian Census into the previously developed microsimulation model of OA. The Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) Cycle 2.1 with an OA sample aged 25-64 (n = 7067) was used to calibrate the results of the employment module and to estimate the fraction of non-employment associated with OA. Probabilities of non-employment together with attributable fractions were then implemented in POHEM to estimate PCWL associated with OA from 2010 to 2031. Results: Among the OA population, 44.4% and 59.4% of non-employment due to illness was associated with OA for those not working full-year and part-year, respectively. According to POHEM projections, the size of the working age population with OA increased from 1.5 million in 2010 to 1.7 million in 2031. The PCWL associated with OA increased from $12 billion to $17.5 billion in constant 2008 Canadian dollars. Around 38% of this increase was due to the increase in OA prevalence and changes in demographics, while the rest was due to increase in real wage growth. Male and female OA patients between 55 and 64 years of age had the highest total projected PCWL, respectively. Conclusions: The total PCWL associated with OA in Canada is estimated to be substantial and increasing in future years. Results of this study could be used to inform policies aiming to increase employment sustainability among individuals with OA. (C) 2016 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.