The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe

We investigate the impact of globalization on electoral outcomes in 15 Western European countries over 1988-2007. We employ both official election results at the district level and individual-level voting data, combined with party ideology scores from the Comparative Manifesto Project. We compute a region-specific measure of exposure to Chinese imports, based on the historical industry specialization of each region. To identify the causal impact of the import shock, we instrument imports to Europe using Chinese imports to the United States. At the district level, a stronger import shock leads to (1) an increase in support for nationalist and isolationist parties, (2) an increase in support for radical-right parties, and (3) a general shift to the right in the electorate. These results are confirmed by the analysis of individual-level vote choices. In addition, we find evidence that voters respond to the shock in a sociotropic way.