Forest Cover in Tunisia Before and After the 2011 Tunisian Revolution: a Spatial Analysis Approach

A spatio-temporal analysis of Tunisian forests over the 8 years from 2007 to 2014 is presented in this study. We compare the extent of the forest loss 4 years before and after the 2011 Tunisian revolution using estimates from Global Forest Change Data (GFCD) for 11 governorates located in northern Tunisia. Results show that forest losses have almost tripled from 32 km(2) in the period from 2007 to 2010 compared to 90 km(2) for 2011-2014, with an annual increment estimated at 3.06 km(2) per year. Among the 11 governorates studied, only the governorates of Bizerte and Nabeul revealed a statistically significant difference (p value <0.05) between the means of the forest loss recorded before the revolution and those registered during the post-revolution period. At the delegation level, a significant positive spatial autocorrelation (p value <0.05) was revealed for both periods, with Moran's I values of 0.14 and 0.06 before and after the revolution, respectively. The location of forest loss varied over the years with hot spots occurring in the Bizerte, Jendouba, and Beja governorates between 2007 and 2010 and in Bizerte and Le Kef governorates from 2011 to 2014. This study is the first attempt to map changes to forest cover in Northern Tunisia, which may help the development of proper forest conservation and management strategies in the country.