Journal
REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY
Volume 12, Issue 1, Pages 133-153Publisher
UNIV CHICAGO PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/reep/rex028
Keywords
energy technologies; R&D investments; expert elicitations; uncertainty
Categories
Funding
- ERC [336703 - RISICO]
- European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [730403 - INNOPATHS]
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Expert elicitation is a structured approach for obtaining judgments from experts about items of interest to decision makers. This method has been increasingly applied in the energy domain to collect information on the future cost, technical performance, and associated uncertainty of specific energy technologies. This article has two main objectives: (1) to introduce the basics of expert elicitations, including their design and implementation, highlighting their advantages and disadvantages and their potential to inform policymaking and energy system decisions; and (2) to discuss and compare the results of a subset of the most recent expert elicitations on energy technologies, with a focus on future cost trajectories and implied cost reduction rates. We argue that the data on future energy costs provided by expert elicitations allows for more transparent and robust analyses that incorporate technical uncertainty, which can then be used to support the design and assessment of energy and climate change mitigation policies.
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