Journal
NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF MARINE AND FRESHWATER RESEARCH
Volume 52, Issue 3, Pages 309-335Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/00288330.2017.1390772
Keywords
Climate change; surface ocean; New Zealand; Earth System Model; warming; ocean acidification; nutrients; primary production; particle flux
Categories
Funding
- NZ Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) [C01X1225]
- NIWA Strategic Investment Funding [CAOA1504, COOF1502]
- New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment (MBIE) [C01X1225] Funding Source: New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment (MBIE)
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The future status of the surface ocean around New Zealand was projected using two Earth System Models and four emission scenarios. By 2100 mean changes are largest under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), with a +2.5 degrees C increase in sea surface temperature, and decreases in surface mixed layer depth (15%), macronutrients (7.5-20%), primary production (4.5%) and particle flux (12%). Largest macronutrient declines occur in the eastern Chatham Rise and subantarctic waters to the south, whereas dissolved iron increases in subtropical waters. Surface pH projections, validated against subantarctic time-series data, indicate a 0.335 decline to similar to 7.77 by 2100. However, projected pH is sensitive to future CO2 emissions, remaining within the current range under RCP2.6, but decreasing below it by 2040 with all other scenarios. Sub-regions vulnerable to climate change include the Chatham Rise, polar waters south of 50 degrees S, and subtropical waters north of New Zealand, whereas the central Tasman Sea is least affected.
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