Journal
NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH
Volume 60, Issue 3, Pages 349-361Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/00288233.2017.1351377
Keywords
Dairy industry; scenario analysis; uncertainties; global dairy markets; future farm systems
Categories
Funding
- DairyNZ
- Ministry for Primary Industries in the Transforming the Dairy Value Chain Primary Growth Partnership programme [PGP7]
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New Zealand accounts for just 3% of global milk production, yet it is the largest global trader of milk across borders. In contrast to other milk-producing countries, less than 5% of New Zealand milk is consumed within the country so producers must be constantly aware of changing global forces with respect to supply of, and demand for, their products. This study involved a multitude of stakeholders and used scenario analysis as a tool to arrive at four future scenarios for dairy in New Zealand. It was demonstrated that by using this approach, it is possible to arrive at a robust description of possible, plausible, futures which can guide the design of future farm systems, facilitate the understanding and recognition of factors that might shape the future of agribusiness and provide a rich source of material that can be used to inform and possibly frame and test strategy and policy.
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