Journal
STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS
Volume 47, Issue -, Pages 155-170Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2018.07.004
Keywords
Endogenous dynamics; World input-output data; Global value chains
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Funding
- National Science Centre of Poland [DEC-2015/19/B/HS4/00088]
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We propose a new approach to forecasting the future paths of value-added-related indexes in the framework of global value chains (GVCs) in a global input-output model. The proposed methodology may be applied to different groups of counties and sectors in a global 10 framework under various scenarios regarding technological progress. In an illustrative empirical case study, we focus on four groups of economies and seven groups of sectors. The preliminary results suggest that the East Asian economies, AUNAFTA, and the EU countries are expected to improve the efficiency in building their comparative advantage within the GVC framework, while the largest developing economies are not. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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