Journal
NATURAL HAZARDS
Volume 91, Issue 2, Pages 431-446Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3135-5
Keywords
Flood risk; Uncertainty analysis; Risk model chain; Vorarlberg (Austria)
Funding
- University of Innsbruck
- Medical University of Innsbruck
- Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG), within the scope of the programme COMET - Vorarlberger Landes-Versicherung VaG
- Austrian Climate and Energy Fund (ACRP 8th call) [KR15AC8K12522]
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Flood risk models capture a variety of processes and are associated with large uncertainties. In this paper, the uncertainties due to alternative model assumptions are analysed for various components of a probabilistic flood risk model in the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). The effect of different model assumptions for five aspects is compared to a reference simulation. This includes: (I, II) the selection of two model thresholds controlling the generation of large sets of possible flood events; (III) the selection of a distribution function for the flood frequency analysis; (IV) the building representation and water level derivation for the exposure analysis and (V) the selection of an appropriate damage function. The analysis shows that each of the tested aspects has the potential to alter the modelling results considerably. The results range from a factor of 1.2 to 3, from the lowest to highest value, whereby the selection of the damage function has the largest effect on the overall modelling results.
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