Dynamic simulation of a mountain disaster chain: landslides, barrier lakes, and outburst floods

A mountain disaster chain is a complex system that consists of several sub-disasters and can result in high casualties or serious economic loss. In this study of the mountain disaster chain linking landslides, barrier lakes, and outburst floods, a system model is presented for preliminary use. This system model consists of several depth-averaged models to simulate the movements of sub-disasters. Some factors that influence the movement of each sub-disaster are considered, such as basal pore pressure and sediment transport. Furthermore, the critical conditions that influence the transition between subordinate disaster and superior disaster are studied. To validate the feasibility of the proposed system model, the Yigong mountain disaster chain is simulated as a case study. Comparisons between field observations and numerical results confirm the validity of the model.