Identifying the progenitors of present-day early-type galaxies in observational surveys: correcting 'progenitor bias' using the Horizon-AGN simulation

As endpoints of the hierarchical mass-assembly process, the stellar populations of local early-type galaxies encode the assembly history of galaxies over cosmic time. We use Horizon-AGN, a cosmological hydrodynamical simulation, to study the merger histories of local early-type galaxies and track how the morphological mix of their progenitors evolves over time. We provide a framework for alleviating 'progenitor bias' - the bias that occurs if one uses only early-type galaxies to study the progenitor population. Early types attain their final morphology at relatively early epochs - by z similar to 1, around 60 per cent of today's early types have had their last significant merger. At all redshifts, the majority of mergers have one late-type progenitor, with late-late mergers dominating at z > 1.5 and early-early mergers becoming significant only at z < 0.5. Progenitor bias is severe at all but the lowest redshifts - e.g. at z similar to 0.6, less than 50 per cent of the stellar mass in today's early types is actually in progenitors with early-type morphology, while, at z similar to 2, studying only early types misses almost all (80 per cent) of the stellar mass that eventually ends up in local early-type systems. At high redshift, almost all massive late-type galaxies, regardless of their local environment or star formation rate, are progenitors of local early-type galaxies, as are lower mass (M-star < 10(10.5) M-circle dot) late-types as long as they reside in high-density environments. In this new era of large observational surveys (e.g. LSST, JWST), this study provides a framework for studying how today's early-type galaxies have been built up over cosmic time.