Journal
INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE
Volume 59, Issue -, Pages 302-317Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2018.09.006
Keywords
Crude oil market; Volatility forecasting; GARCH; Regime switching; MCS
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71322103, 71431008, 71774051]
- National Program for Support of Top-notch Young Professionals [W02070325]
- Changjiang Scholars Program of the Ministry of Education of China [Q2016154]
- China Scholarship Council [201606135020]
- Hunan Youth Talent Program
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GARCH-type models are frequently used to forecast crude oil price volatility, and whether we should consider multiple regimes for the GARCH-type models is of great significance for the forecasting work but does not have a final conclusion yet. To that end, this paper estimates and forecasts crude oil price volatility using three single-regime GARCH (i.e., GARCH, GJR-GARCH and EGARCH) and two regime-switching GARCH (i.e., MMGARCH and MRS-GARCH) models. Furthermore, the Model Confidence Set (MCS) procedure is employed to evaluate the forecasting performance. The in-sample results show that the MRS-GARCH model provides higher estimation accuracy in weekly data. However, the out-of-sample results show the limited significance of considering the regime switching. Overall, our results indicate that the incorporation of regime switching does not perform significantly better than the single-regime GARCH models. The findings are proved to be robust to both daily and weekly data for WTI and Brent over different time horizons.
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