Dynamic risk factors and timing of recidivism for youth in residential placement

Purpose: Though prior research has advanced knowledge on the risk factors most related to recidivism, known as the central eight risk factors, there is a dearth of research on whether these risk factors distinguish youth who reoffend at varying time intervals. This study uses the central eight risk factors outlined in the risk-need-responsivity model to examine how dynamic risk factors are related to the timing of recidivism, and how this differs for male and female youth. Methods: Cox proportional hazard and multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between risk factors and time to failure for 2523 male and female youth who completed a juvenile justice residential placement. Results: The dynamic risk factors related to early failure for males include antisocial attitudes, antisocial personality, delinquent peers, familial relationships, and ties to school. For females, only leisure time was related to early failure. Additionally, both male and female youth with higher global risk scores were more likely to be arrested in the first 30 days post-release than in the 6-12 month time interval. Conclusions: Youth need to be provided with services tailored to their needs upon reentry, and it is crucial that these services begin immediately upon reentry for higher risk youth.