Journal
METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS
Volume 131, Issue 3, Pages 299-311Publisher
SPRINGER WIEN
DOI: 10.1007/s00703-017-0570-5
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Funding
- Civil Engineering Program of the Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute of Postgraduate Studies and Research in Engineering (COPPE)-part of the Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)
- Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES) [03/2015-BRICS]
- Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq) [485136/2013-9, 306944/2016-2]
- National Secretariat of Higher Education (SESu)-part of the Ministry of Education (MEC) (2010-2016) (PET CIVIL UFRJ)
- Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ) [E-26/010.002980/2014, E_12/2015]
- Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology (MCT), through its Financier of Studies and Projects (FINEP)
- CT-HIDRO Fund (2005-2016)
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Local prediction of thunderstorms is one of the most challenging tasks in weather forecasting due to their high spatiotemporal variability. An improved understanding of such meteorological phenomena, therefore, requires high-frequency measurements along the vertical profile of the atmosphere of interest. In this context, the evaluation of thermodynamic and dynamic parameters obtained from radiosondes to identify atmospheric conditions favorable to thunderstorm and heavy-rainfall development emerges as a valuable tool for investigations of thunderstorms. In this context, four radiosondes were launched to collect a data set for the area of interest at the sub-daily scale (12 UTC, 16 UTC, 18 UTC, and 00 UTC). The collection period encompassed two dates-November 29 and December 12, 2016-chosen specifically due to the existence of heavy-rainfall warnings in the forecast for the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (MARJ) for those days. However, heavy rainfall was registered only for December 12 and not for November 29 (which led us to explore this contrast with the announced rainfall forecasts). Sub-daily radiosonde data showed a clear decrease in atmospheric instability in the early afternoon on November 29. On the other hand, an opposite scenario occurred on December 12, which saw an expressive increase in thermodynamic instability during the day. The meteorological modeling approach used also revealed that the vertical coupling of low-level moisture flux convergence centers and upper-level mass flux divergence centers worked as a dynamic trigger for the thunderstorm and heavy-rainfall developments that took place on December 12, 2016.
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