Journal
EKSPLOATACJA I NIEZAWODNOSC-MAINTENANCE AND RELIABILITY
Volume 17, Issue 2, Pages 273-281Publisher
POLISH MAINTENANCE SOC
DOI: 10.17531/ein.2015.2.15
Keywords
time-dependency; Bayesian networks; event tree; fault tree; phased-mission system; reliability; risk analysis
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Event tree/fault tree (E/FT) method is the most recognized probabilistic risk assessment tool for complex large engineering systems, while its classical formalism most often only considers pivotal events (PEs) being independent or time-independent. However, the practical difficulty regarding phased-mission system (PMS) is that the PEs always modelled by fault trees (FTs) are explicit dependent caused by shared basic events, and phase-dependent when the time interval between PEs is not negligible. In this paper, we combine the Bayesian networks (BN) with the E/FT analysis to figure such types of PMS based on the conditional probability to give expression of the phase-dependency, and further expand it by the dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) to cope with more complex time-dependency such as functional dependency and spares. Then, two detailed examples are used to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach in complex event tree time-dependency analysis.
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