Journal
CLIMATE POLICY
Volume 19, Issue 1, Pages 30-42Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2018.1464893
Keywords
Carbon budgets; climate change; climate mitigation; decarbonization; equity; ETSAP; integrated energy system models; macroeconomic feedback; Paris Agreement; TIMES-MACRO
Categories
Funding
- Science Foundation Ireland as part of the MaREI Centre [12/RC/2302]
- Environmental Protection Agency and Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland under Ireland's Climate Change Research Programme 2007-2013 for the development of the Irish TIMES model [2011-CCRP-MS-3.5]
- European Regional Development Fund
- Higher Education Authority through the PRTLI-5 Graduate Research Engineering Programme in Energy
- Environmental Protection Agency Ireland (EPA) [2011-CCRP-MS-3.5] Funding Source: Environmental Protection Agency Ireland (EPA)
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The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2 degrees C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5 degrees C. Each Party's successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party's then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80-95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5 degrees C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than Euro8,100/tCO(2) by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5 degrees C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5-10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in.Key policy insights Economic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system.The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors.Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization.Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3-5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80-95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of well below' 2 degrees C and pursuing 1.5 degrees C.Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO2 emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy.
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