Treg gene signatures predict and measure type 1 diabetes trajectory

BACKGROUND. Multiple therapeutic strategies to restore immune regulation and slow type 1 diabetes (T1D) progression are in development and testing. A major challenge has been defining biomarkers to prospectively identify subjects likely to benefit from immunotherapy and/or measure intervention effects. We previously found that, compared with healthy controls, Tregs from children with new-onset T1D have an altered Treg gene signature (TGS), suggesting that this could be an immunoregulatory biomarker. METHODS. nanoString was used to assess the TGS in sorted Tregs (C04(+)CD25(hi)CD127(lo)) or peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from individuals with T1D or type 2 diabetes, healthy controls, or T1D recipients of immunotherapy. Biomarker discovery pipelines were developed and applied to various sample group comparisons. RESULTS. Compared with controls, the TGS in isolated Tregs or PBMCs was altered in adult newonset and cross-sectional T1D cohorts, with sensitivity or specificity of biomarkers increased by including T1D-associated SNPs in algorithms. The TGS was distinct in T1D versus type 2 diabetes, indicating disease-specific alterations. TGS measurement at the time of T1D onset revealed an algorithm that accurately predicted future rapid versus slow C-peptide decline, as determined by longitudinal analysis of placebo arms of START and T1DAL trials. The same algorithm stratified participants in a phase I/II clinical trial of ustekinumab (alpha IL-12/23p40) for future rapid versus slow C-peptide decline. CONCLUSION. These data suggest that biomarkers based on measuring TGSs could be a new approach to stratify patients and monitor autoimmune activity in T1D.