Rebound effect across seasons: evidence from the replacement of air conditioners in Japan

Switching to more energy-efficient appliances may lead to higher energy demand. This phenomenon is known as the rebound effect, which may lead to less power saving than expected prior to the switch. Using a combination of propensity score matching with the difference-in-differences method, we examine the change in household electricity consumption that may be caused by replacing air conditioners with more energy-efficient ones. Based on the results of our estimations, we calculate the magnitude of the rebound effect for summer and winter. We find that the rebound effect is positive in summer and winter, and the magnitude is higher in winter (7.87% versus almost 100%, respectively). The estimated rebound effect is small in summer, implying that the power-saving effect due to switching to energy-efficient air conditioners is sizable. On the other hand, no power-saving effect due to the switch was found in winter.