Journal
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
Volume 109, Issue 8, Pages 2766-2794Publisher
AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC
DOI: 10.1257/aer.20180310
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Funding
- Silverman (1968) Family Career Development Chair at MIT
- National Science Foundation [1654234]
- Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
- Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie
- Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences [1654234] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Some empirical results are more likely to be published than others. Selective publication leads to biased estimates and distorted inference. We propose two approaches for identifying the conditional probability of publication as a function of a study's results, the first based on systematic replication studies and the second on meta-studies. For known conditional publication probabilities, we propose bias-corrected estimators and confidence sets. We apply our methods to recent replication studies in experimental economics and psychology, and to a meta-study on the effect of the minimum wage. When replication and meta-study data are available, we find similar results from both.
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