Journal
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Volume 74, Issue 7, Pages 2315-2324Publisher
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-17-0008.1
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Funding
- ONR [N000141410062, N000140910526]
- NOAA under the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP)
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences [1305798] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Errors in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are dominated by initial-condition errors out to at least a few days. Initialization errors are usually thought of in terms of position and intensity, but here it is shown that growth of intensity error is at least as sensitive to the specification of inner-core moisture as to that of the wind field. Implications of this finding for tropical cyclone observational strategies and for overall predictability of storm intensity are discussed.
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