Identifying the factors driving the uncertainty in transport infrastructure project by application of structural dynamic analysis to a backcast scenario

Transport planning, in theory, is underpinned by rational analysis of the benefits of proposed developments. However, project outcomes do not always follow the results of that analysis and uncertainty is evident during the decision making processes. This research has devised and demonstrated a method to analyse that uncertainty, focussing on the early stages of the project lifecycle. Stakeholders were interviewed to elicit their opinions about a normative scenario and these interviews coded using qualitative data analysis techniques. The emerging variables were analysed, using a structural dynamic model, based in complexity theory, which develops measures of connectivity to classify variables by their roles in inception and uncertainty in the project. The case study was based on a disused railway with contradictory views on the benefits of reopening it. In the normative scenario, the rail service is re-instated in conjunction with a new sustainable urban development. The findings from this case study were that executive leadership and collaboration between Local Authorities were the most influential determinants for progress, and that the prime causes of uncertainty were the extant economic and planning policies. During the course of the project, structural governance developments have occurred in the UK that have endorsed these findings.