Journal
DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
Volume 22, Issue 4, Pages 445-456Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12408
Keywords
Acacia; biological invasions; climatic suitability; global change; invasive species; lag phase; risk assessment; tree invasions
Categories
Funding
- National Research Foundation [76912, 81825, 89967, 85417]
- DST-NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biology
- South African National Department of Environment Affairs through South African National Biodiversity Institute's Invasive Species Programme
- Austrian Science Foundation (FWF) [I2096-B16]
- South African Research Chairs Initiative of the Department of Science and Technology
- National Research Foundation of South Africa
- National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) [NSF DBI-1052875]
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ
- sDiv, the Synthesis Centre of iDiv (DFG) [FZT 118]
- Direct For Biological Sciences
- Div Of Biological Infrastructure [1639145] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Div Of Biological Infrastructure
- Direct For Biological Sciences [1052875] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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AimWe develop a framework for quantifying invasions based on lagged trends in invasions (invasion debt') with the aim of identifying appropriate metrics to quantify delayed responses at different invasion stages - from introduction to when environmental impacts occur. LocationWorld-wide; detailed case study in South Africa. MethodsWe define four components of invasion debt: the number of species not yet introduced but likely to be introduced in the future given current levels of introduction/propagule pressure; the establishment of introduced species; the potential increase in area invaded by established species (including invasive species); and the potential increase in impacts. We demonstrate the approach in terms of number of species for 21 known invasive Australian Acacia species globally and estimate three components of invasion debt for 58 Acacia species already introduced to South Africa by quantifying key invasion factors (environmental suitability, species invasion status, residence time, propagule pressure, spread rate and impacts). ResultsCurrent global patterns of invasive species richness reflect historical trends of introduction - most acacia species that will become invasive in southern Africa have already invaded, but there is a substantial establishment debt in South and North America. In South Africa, the likely consequence of invasion debt over the next 20years was estimated at: four additional species becoming invasive with an average increase of 1075km(2) invaded area per invasive species. We estimate that this would require over US$ 500 million to clear. Main conclusionsOur results indicate that invasion debt is a valuable metric for reporting on the threats attributable to biological invasions, that invasion debt must be factored into strategic plans for managing global change, and, as with other studies, they highlight the value of proactive management. Given the uncertainty associated with biological invasions, further work is required to quantify the different components of invasion debt.
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