Development Without Industrialization? Household Well-Being and Premature Deindustrialization

The effect of premature deindustrialization on the distribution of gains from growth has thus far been understudied. Using census data from eleven countries spanning five decades and shift-share analysis, I find evidence of persistent gaps in multidimensional well-being in household categories defined by employment type and urban/rural location, and a cross-country pattern of less improvement due to expansion of industrial employment over time, without adequate replacement. Taken together, these results provide evidence for a negative relationship between improvements in household well-being and premature deindustrialization on both an individual country case and in a cross-country sample.