A gravity model analysis of forced displacement in Colombia

Between 1985 and 2016 more than 7 million people were victims of forced displacement in Colombia. At the height of the conflict, more than 90% of municipalities in the country saw some form of displacement. In this study we extend the traditional gravity model of migration to analyze the flows of internally displaced people in Colombia between 1986 and 2015, and identify some of the main factors involved in people's choice of destination. We find violence at the origin municipality to be the most important driver of displacement. Similarly, destination municipalities with larger social networks of victims of displacement, larger overall populations, and closer to places of origin attract more displaced people. We propose forced displacement be treated as regional-level phenomenon and planners, city officials, and aid organizations focus their attention on medium-sized regional centers. Because of the importance of social networks in driving people's choice of destination, city officials, planners and aid organizations should closely collaborate with grassroots community organizations to adequately allocate resources and plan for new arrivals.