Journal
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
Volume 146, Issue -, Pages 628-643Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.04.016
Keywords
R&D assessment; R&D Indicators; Technology Emergence Indicators; Tech mining; Emerging technology
Categories
Funding
- National Science Foundation under EAGER Award [1645237]
- SBE Off Of Multidisciplinary Activities
- Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie [1645237] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Indicators of technological emergence promise valuable intelligence to those determining R&D priorities. We present an implemented algorithm to calculate emergence scores for topical terms from abstract record sets. We offer a family of emergence indicators deriving from those scores. Primary emergence indicators identify hot topic terms. We then use those to generate secondary indicators that reflect organizations, countries, or authors especially active at frontiers in a target R&D domain. We also flag abstract records (papers or patents) rich in emergent technology content, and we score research fields on relative degree of emergence. This paper presents illustrative results for example topics - Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery, Non-Linear Programming, Dye Sensitized Solar Cells, and Big Data.
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