Freight transport models: Ready to support transport policy of the future?

The traditional model-based approach is no longer capable of grasping developments in freight transport within an ever more rapidly changing world. Most models that have been used in the past to explain and predict the demand for freight transport did not devote sufficient consideration to structural, organisational and behavioural changes. Several important global developments that are taking place could have a structural effect on freight transport, with a number of consequences for modelling. This paper addresses several global developments in greater depth, along with their impact on freight transport. This is followed by a discussion of the future of freight models. It is unclear which approach would be appropriate for freight transport under these conditions. This is a clear problem that is linked to a research agenda.