FATE OF IMPORTANT MEDICINAL PLANTS IN THE EASTERN HIMALAYA IN CHANGING CLIMATE SCENARIOS: A CASE OF PANAX PSEUDOGINSENG WALL

Monitoring the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems, particularly at the species level, can be currently observed in many parts of the world. In this study, Maxent species distribution modelling algorithm was used to predict the suitable habitat for the medicinally important species; Panax pseudoginseng in Sikkim Himalaya The nineteen bioclimatic variables from Worldclim database were used to predict the current potential distribution. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of IPCC 5th assessment was used for predicting the future distribution of species in 2050 and 2070. The Maxent model performed better than random with an average test AUC (Area under Curve) value 0.927 under the predicted current distribution. The projected distribution in future under the both RCPs scenarios showed upward shift of species (i.e., gain in suitable habitat area) in high elevation area over the years of 2050 and 2070. Areas with suitable climatic conditions predicted to decline by the 2050s and the 2070s under both RCP scenarios. The application of predictive Maxent modelling approach presented here may provide policymakers and conservationists, with a useful tool for prediction of species in future climate with only presence distribution records and therefore, can be an effective approach for species restoration and conservation actions.