Journal
JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Volume 215, Issue 9, Pages 1362-1365Publisher
OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC
DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jix089
Keywords
cost; death; drug resistance; HIV; incidence; mathematical model
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Funding
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through the HIV Modelling Consortium [OPP1084364]
- World Health Organisation
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1084364] Funding Source: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
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To inform the level of attention to be given by antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs to HIV drug resistance (HIVDR), we used an individual-level model to estimate its impact on future AIDS deaths, HIV incidence, and ART program costs in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for a range of program situations. We applied this to SSA through the Spectrum-Goals model. In a situation in which current levels of pretreatment HIVDR are over 10% (mean, 15%), 16% of AIDS deaths (890 000 deaths), 9% of new infections (450 000), and 8% ($6.5 billion) of ART program costs in SSA in 2016-2030 will be attributable to HIVDR.
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