Journal
CURRENT ISSUES IN TOURISM
Volume 23, Issue 17, Pages 2165-2181Publisher
ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2019.1681945
Keywords
Terrorism; tourism; NARDL model; Turkey; cointegration
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This study estimates the long-run and short-run impact of terrorist incidents on inbound and domestic tourist arrivals in Turkey by using a non-linear autoregressive lag (NARDL) model for the period between 2007 and 2016. The results reveal unidirectional nonlinear relationships from terrorism to tourism in both the long-run and short run. Inbound and domestic tourists show different respond towards an increase or decrease in terrorist incidents. The findings are expected to help tourism management, planning, and forecasting regarding greater economic benefits for the country. We suggest that improving security measures and effective safety procedures in tourist areas can reduce terrorist incidents in the future.
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