Modeling Urban Growth and Land Cover Change in Albuquerque Using SLEUTH

This research examines the impact of urban development on three major development areas (Mesa del Sol, Volcano Mesa, and Santolina) in Albuquerque, New Mexico, based on the past pattern of urban growth and development that has occurred in the city. We investigate urban growth in these areas using (1) a business-as-usual scenario, where urbanization in these areas is based on historical urban growth and without any explicit definition of these development areas, and (2) an expansion scenario, where these development areas are explicitly defined as areas preferred for urbanization. Each scenario is further explored based on possible high and low population growth rates. We use SLEUTH, a dynamic urban growth model, for future urban growth prediction. Results from the model indicated that urban growth predominantly occurs as infill and at the fringes of the current urban extension. For the three development areas, a high probability of urban growth was seen in Volcano Mesa, followed by Mesa del Sol, and a low probability of urban growth was observed in Santolina. Furthermore, the results suggest that Volcano Mesa would have been developed regardless of it being designated as a development area, whereas urban growth in Santolina was particularly attributable to it being designated as a development area. Key Words: Albuquerque, land cover change, SLEUTH, urban growth, urbanization.