The analysis of the battery electric vehicle's potentiality of environmental effect: A case study of Beijing from 2016 to 2020

Among the first batch of pilot cities for application and promotion of new energy vehicles determined in 2013, Beijing is also a pilot city for national energy conservation, demonstration and popularization of new energy vehicles as well as subsidization of private new energy vehicles purchase. 2016 marks the beginning of the 13th Five-Year Plan and is hence expected to be a pivotal year for promoting new energy vehicles. Using the Fuel Life Cycle Assessment, this paper conducts a quantitative analysis of such battery electric vehicles being promoted in Beijing as electric taxis, electric buses, electric sanitation trucks and rental battery electric vehicles, based on which we forecast the battery electric vehicles' performance during the 13th Five-Year Plan in terms of energy conservation and emission reduction, as well as provide insights into the development path and the policy making for the industry accordingly. The results indicate a positive effect on energy conservation and emission reduction for all battery electric vehicles types currently on duty in Beijing, with an estimated 1.9 billion kilogram consumed energy of electricity conserved as well as 39.4 million tons of CO2 emission reduced by the end of 2020. Factors like power generation structure and fuel type are found to be crucial for this emission reduction performance. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.