Journal
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
Volume 151, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119847
Keywords
Electric vehicle; Automotive; System dynamics; Netherlands; Norway; Policy scenarios
Categories
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Past and future electric vehicle sales shares in the Netherlands and Norway are analysed with the Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model. This system dynamics model was expanded to include the leading Norwegian car market and updated with recent data on policy incentives. Three model validation tests are discussed: the reproduction of past behaviour from 2010 till 2017, policy sensitivity, and feedback loop knockout analysis. Findings point in the direction that regulation on emission targets for manufacturers are necessary for a transition away from new sales of fossil fuel-based vehicles. Only strong incentives resulted in large sales shares of zero emission vehicles in the Netherlands and Norway.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available