Journal
MARITIME POLICY & MANAGEMENT
Volume 47, Issue 6, Pages 778-796Publisher
ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2020.1729432
Keywords
Risk assessment; container shipping operation; Bayesian network; evidential Reasoning; risk mapping
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Funding
- Tasmania Graduate Research Scholarship
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The substantial adverse effects of risk factors on container shipping and logistics promoted a deep integration of risk analysis into the decision-making process. This paper aims to develop a well-grounded quantitative model to operational risk in a container shipping context. Considering uncertainty as a primary component of the risk concept, methods were employed in an inter-complementary manner to enable not only a sense of foreseeability but also a deeper look into the weaknesses of the knowledge base. The intersubjectivity of the input extraction process was supported by the Evidential Reasoning (ER) algorithm. Risks are then assessed based on a Fuzzy Rules Bayesian Network (FRBN) model with a 2-level parameter structure before meaningful interpretations can be derived through a new risk mapping approach. Besides an illustrative case study, the model was tested by sensitivity analysis and an examination of multiple validity claims.
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