Journal
CRYOSPHERE
Volume 14, Issue 3, Pages 855-879Publisher
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-855-2020
Keywords
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Funding
- U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science (RGMA program)
- U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science (BER program grant)
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche [ANR-15-CE01-0005-01, ANR-15-CE01-0015]
- Fondation Albert II de Monaco
- National Science Foundation, Division of Polar Programs [1513396, 1744792]
- Netherlands Earth System Science Centre [024.002.001]
- NERC [NE/N018486/1]
- National Science Foundation [1756272, 1916566]
- NASA
- Norwegian Research Council [231549, 280727]
- NERC [bas0100032, NE/N01829X/1, NE/N018486/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Division Of Ocean Sciences [1756272] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP) [1744792, 1513396] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.
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