Journal
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING
Volume 17, Issue 3, Pages 2708-2724Publisher
AMER INST MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES-AIMS
DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2020148
Keywords
COVID-19; compartmental modeling; basic reproduction number
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Funding
- National Institutes of Health [1R15GM131315]
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We propose a mathematical model to investigate the current outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China. Our model describes the multiple transmission pathways in the infection dynamics, and emphasizes the role of the environmental reservoir in the transmission and spread of this disease. Our model also employs non-constant transmission rates which change with the epidemiological status and environmental conditions and which reflect the impact of the on-going disease control measures. We conduct a detailed analysis of this model, and demonstrate its application using publicly reported data. Among other findings, our analytical and numerical results indicate that the coronavirus infection would remain endemic, which necessitates long-term disease prevention and intervention programs.
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