Stochastic Modeling of the Fate and Behaviors of an Oil Spill in the Salish Sea

Expansion of oil pipelines in western Canada will significantly increase tanker traffic and the probability of oil spills in the Salish Sea. To study the potential environmental effects from an oil spill, a state-of-the-art three-dimensional oil spill model was forced by a newly developed, high-resolution, hydrodynamic and atmospheric model, to simulate the fate and transport of three selected oils in the Salish Sea. A stochastic approach under a wide range of environmental conditions indicated that there is a very high probability for contamination of the Haro Strait area and the majority of the oil would stay on the surface and accumulate on the shoreline, rather than disperse into the water column.