Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE
Volume 32, Issue 1, Pages 73-101Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/13658816.2017.1376065
Keywords
Urban dynamics; gradient CA; S-shaped curve; large-scale simulation; China
Categories
Funding
- China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [2015M580753]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41671398, 61601522]
- National Key R&D Program of China [2017YFA0604401, 2017YFA0604402]
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Cellular automata (CA) have been efficiently used to express the complexity and dynamics of cities at different scales. However, those large-scale simulation models typically use only binary values to represent urbanization states without considering mixed types within a cell. They also ignore differences among the cells in terms of their temporal evolution characteristics at different urbanization stages. This study establishes a gradient CA for solving such problems while considering development differences among the cells. The impervious surface area data was used to detect the urbanization states and temporal evolution trends of the grid cells. Transition rules were determined with the incorporation of urban development theory expressed as an S-shaped curve. China was selected as the case study area to validate the performance of the gradient CA for a national simulation. A comparison was also made to a traditional binary logistic-CA. The results demonstrated that the gradient CA achieved higher accuracies in terms of both spatial patterns and quantitative assessment indices. The simulation pattern derived from the gradient CA can better reflect the local disparity and temporal characteristics of urban dynamics. A national urban expansion for 2050 was also simulated, and is expected to provide important data for ecological assessments.
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