A crude future? COVID-19s challenges for oil demand, supply and prices

Assessing prospects for future oil prices is an uncertain activity but, barring Middle East conflict creating severe supply issues, crude oil prices are expected to stage a recovery by third-quarter 2020 and modest further recovery in first-half 2021, with the range $40 to $60 per barrel for WTI and Brent. Despite such a recovery there will be many oil sectors incurring losses, from US shale oil and Canadian tar sands producers, to many standard crude oil exporters incurring problems with production equipment access and costs, or experiencing lack of competitiveness in key markets.