Warranty assessment of photovoltaic modules based on a degradation probabilistic model

Evaluating the probability of failure of a product during the warranty is key to estimating the cost of its entire life cycle. Photovoltaic (PV) modules are the most reliable elements of a PV system, and their high reliability translates into long warranty periods (typically 25 to 30 years). The number of PV modules that fail during warranty and when they failed is an important issue to estimate the life cycle cost of PV modules. In this paper, we propose a coupled degradation-warranty model for PV modules. The proposed model is aimed to assess the probability of failure over time covered by warranty based on degradation data. This allows us to estimate the time of PV modules failure covered by the warranty. Although the warranty model has been applied to some forms of degradation and sales functions, our method can be applied to any real application. This allows the key parameters of the warranty to be obtained in a simple way. The required degradation parameters to fulfill warranty depend on the allowable ratio of warranted elements. However, the main conclusion of the influence of degradation rates on warranty is that it is not possible to fulfill 25 years of warranty if degradation rates are larger than 0.8%/year. The required degradation rates values, for 25 years of warranty, will be lower than 0.5%/year if the allowed warranted element is in the range of 1%.