Dual-Task Tests Predict Conversion to Dementia-A Prospective Memory-Clinic-Based Cohort Study

The aim of this study was to investigate whether Timed Up-and-Go (TUG) dual-task (TUGdt) tests predict dementia incidence among patients with subjective or mild cognitive impairment (SCI; MCI). Other study objectives were to determine whether TUGdt improves dementia prediction compared to a) demographic characteristics and standard cognitive tests alone; and b) TUG and Verbal Fluency performed separately. Patients (n = 172, age range 39-91 years, 78 women) with SCI or MCI performed TUGdt tests, including 1) naming animals and 2) reciting months backwards, and clinical cognitive tests at baseline. Diagnoses were identified at follow-up after 2.5 years. Logistic regression was used to predict dementia incidence, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and c-statistics for predictive capacity. Analyses were stratified by age and gender. At follow-up, 51 patients had developed dementia. The TUGdt result animals/10 s was associated with dementia incidence (standardized odds ratio (OR) = 4.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.28-7.23, p < 0.001), more so among patients under the median age of 72 years (standardized OR = 19.4, 95% CI 3.53-106.17, p < 0.001). TUGdt animals/10 s improved dementia prediction compared to demographic characteristics and standard tests alone (c-statistics 0.88 to 0.94) and single-task tests (c-statistics 0.86 to 0.89), but only in the younger patient group. TUGdt has the potential to become a useful tool for dementia prediction.